The Fallacy of Self-Made

How luck plays a huge role in success

A good friend of mine recently posted this statement, “A lot of rich people mistakenly assume that the fact that they got rich proves that they've accumulated wisdom that they should offer to others.” His statement was in support of Ed Zitron’s article Everything Looks Like A Nail that was a polemic against Marc Andreessen’s The Techno-Optimist Manifesto. There are lots of great writings supporting and decrying Andreessen’s post so there is no need for me to pile on that. However, I would point out that it very much reminded me of Kevin Kelly’s book What Technology Wants, that examines the role of technology in history, and its dual role as humanity's best friend and worst enemy. An interesting read if you are so inclined on this topic. Instead, what I would like to discuss is this notion that so often people who have achieved success believe that they were the cause of it.

After nearly thirty years in industry and having consulted with almost 300 fast growing startups, I have a perspective on success. The bottom line up front is that luck plays a huge role in anyone’s success. Let’s dive into a few of the ways that I’ve witnessed successful people being lucky. To start with, the successful people that I’ve worked with have been very lucky to have been born in this particular time of general peace, which is really awkward to write given all of the conflicts that are taking place. And, this might absolutely change for this rising generation and then they will not have been so lucky in timing but the post-WWII generations have undoubtedly been lucky. Then there is the general luck of being born at all. Richard Dawkins, a British evolutionary biologist and author who coined the term “meme”, wrote in Unweaving the Rainbow: Science, Delusion and the Appetite for Wonder: 

We are going to die, and that makes us the lucky ones. Most people are never going to die because they are never going to be born. The potential people who could have been here in my place but who will in fact never see the light of day outnumber the sand grains of Arabia. Certainly those unborn ghosts include greater poets than Keats, scientists greater than Newton. We know this because the set of possible people allowed by our DNA so massively exceeds the set of actual people. In the teeth of these stupefying odds it is you and I, in our ordinariness, that are here.

Timing doesn’t just provide luck in terms of when we are born, it also plays a huge role in what ideas take off. John Dalton, an early 19th century British chemist best known for his work in modern atomic theory, wrote of his work, "It's the right idea, but not the right time." Dalton proposed atomic theory in 1808; yet, an additional century passed before the theory was universally accepted by scientists. Many other notable folks have pointed out the importance of timing. Bill Gross, the founder of Idealab and a serial entrepreneur, in a TED talk, mentioned that timing is the single biggest reason why startups grow successfully. His statement was based on the survey of 200 companies where timing accounted for 42% of the differences between successful and failed startups, followed by the team (32%), idea (28%), business model (24%) and funding (14%).

The allure of success often blinds one to the serendipitous moments that pave the path of achievement. Among the illustrious and the unknown, the dance of fortune plays out, leaving a trail of stories that accentuate the role of luck in success. One such narrative revolves around Warren Buffet, the Oracle of Omaha, who is revered as a sage in the domain of investing. Yet, beneath the veil of his acumen lies an acknowledgment of luck. Buffet has often credited his fortune to the ovarian lottery of being born in the United States in 1930. His natural proclivity for numbers found a fertile ground in the conducive financial climate of his era, an alignment of stars that might not have been possible in a different time or place.

The digital epoch narrates a similar tale through the inception of YouTube. Initially envisioned as a dating site, the scant upload of videos heralded a pivot towards a general video-sharing platform. The timing was akin to a perfectly composed symphony - the emergence of broadband facilitated seamless streaming, distinguishing YouTube from its cumbersome predecessors. This pivot, fortified by the luck of good timing, propelled YouTube into a trajectory of explosive growth, etching its name in the lexicon of the digital age.

Amidst the sea of apps, the story of Instagram burgeons as a testament to the alliance of innovation and luck. Kevin Systrom, a denizen of Silicon Valley, embarked on a digital venture with a location-based app called Burbn. However, it was the metamorphosis into a simplified photo-sharing app, christened Instagram, that catapulted Systrom into the annals of success. The app debuted to a chorus of approval, garnering around 25,000 users on the first day. The zeitgeist of the era, marked by the burgeoning popularity of smartphones equipped with decent cameras, played the muse to Instagram's success.

Sometimes as Dalton learned the timing just isn’t right. Webvan, a promising online grocery delivery service that emerged during the dot-com boom of the late '90s, epitomized the adage of right idea, wrong time. With a vision to revolutionize the traditional grocery shopping model, it ventured into uncharted territory, leveraging the nascent internet infrastructure to bring convenience to doorsteps. However, the world wasn’t quite ready. The digital ecosystem lacked the maturity and consumer behavior hadn't evolved to the extent it has today, where online shopping is second nature. Moreover, the logistical and operational challenges were colossal, exacerbated by the company's aggressive expansion and hefty infrastructure investments. As the dot-com bubble burst, so did the dreams of Webvan, leaving behind a tale of foresight that was perhaps too ahead of its time. Yet, the essence of Webvan's vision wasn’t lost; it was a precursor to today’s thriving online grocery delivery services. Its ambitious endeavor highlighted the critical confluence of timing, technology, and consumer readiness, a trinity that would later bolster the success of companies like Instacart and Amazon Fresh. The story of Webvan stands as a poignant reminder in the annals of digital commerce about the significant impact of timing on the trajectory of innovative ventures.

The luck of timing isn’t the only luck that many, many successful people are blessed with. Sociologist Mark Granovetter introduced the concept of the "strength of weak ties" in his 1973 paper, The Strength of Weak Ties. Granovetter argued that weak ties, which are casual connections and loose acquaintances, are more valuable than strong ties for employment opportunities, promotions, and wages. He found that weak ties are more likely to provide new opportunities than strong ties. For example, in a survey of 282 men in the United States who got their jobs, Granovetter found that weak ties were more helpful than strong ties in securing employment. Additionally, he also argued that weak ties are more likely to link different groups together. Some ties can act as a "bridge" that spans parts of a social network and connect otherwise disconnected social groups but argues that "no strong tie is a bridge." The argument is that if someone is strongly tied to someone else, those around their tie will also be tied to them and ties will be redundant. Granovetter argues that for diffusion across a network, it is the weak ties that are most valuable. Strong ties, which are close relationships with friends and family, are important for emotional support. 

We have all likely experienced the strength of weak ties. For me personally this has been very important. Aside from my very first programming job out of the military, where I secured the position at a recruiting fair, someone’s recommendation of me has opened the door for every other role. The most recent example was at Etsy where I had worked with the company on and off for years before the leadership changes in 2017. However, that experience didn’t matter at all. Rather, the new CEO asked the board for recommendations of technology consultants. The name he received, Jon Williams, was busy with other work and passed along my name. One thing led to another and I ended up taking the role. None of that would have happened unless Jon had been connected with that board member and that we were friends.

The luck of just being born, given the astonishing number of possible DNA combinations, then the luck of being born at a particular time, in a particular place, when other advances are happening that create opportunities. Add to this the luck of knowing certain people, being at the right place at the right time, having the ability to take risks, etc. and you get a myriad of factors that go into someone’s success. None of this is to take away the hard work that so many of us have put into our work. Nor does it take away from people’s natural gifts, talents, or intellect. Rather, this is just a friendly reminder that no successful person was self-made. They all had timing, other people, and resources on their side. So, when you read an article from me or anyone else claiming that they know what’s best because they are successful, remember that at best they played a part in the success but certainly not against all odds did they make it alone.